Yesterday, Kate Marshall did what I believe most in Nevada’s Political circles had expected for weeks, bringing to the end any speculation over what her true intentions were. On cue, less than 24 hours after Senator John Ensign had returned to Nevada for the final time, she made the formal announcement that she would indeed seek to replace soon to be Senator Dean Heller as the next Representative from Congressional District 2. A formality, for most, but an indication to some, that the DCCC had secured their choice, and were now going to begin the process of attempting to clear the way for Marshall.
An announcement that most saw coming isn’t really worth writing about, but there is some humor that comes along with it. Before Kate could even get her campaign out of the starting blocks the DCCC was out trying to squash the rumors that she was the “anointed one.” As a political operative, I know having a candidate being referred to as the “anointed one,” can be a real show stopper, so it is important to get ahead of that story. However, rather than getting ahead of the story, it seems the DCCC yesterday poured lighter fluid on the preverbal “fire” so to speak by engaging with John Ralston, one of Nevada’s top political reporters, on twitter of all places.
I have seen a lot of mishandled stories by national committees in my days, but on the roll out of your “anointed” candidate, I would be hard pressed to find a more rookie mistake. Sure I understand you have to look neutral, but let Kate Marshall distance herself from you, why are you out there doing the squashing, and on twitter no less. Sometimes, saying nothing is the best course to take, those who have worked with me in the past, I am sure are wondering who this new found visionary is, I must admit, in the heat of battle it is always easier to speak that remain silent. That being said I return to words my father always says: the cover-up is worse than the crime.
Ok enough about the DCCC, and how they botched that mess.
I want to start by giving this disclaimer, I don’t personally know Kate Marshall, I imagine as an individual she is a kind and caring person like many of her pictures on her website would depict. So I won’t even begin to comment on that aspect, nor do I find it relevant for this discussion. What I do fine relevant; to discuss is my observations as a political operative on the ground here in Nevada.
In 2010, I had the chance to come across the Marshall campaign only a few times, at various events, mainly in retirement communities, or rural communities across Clark County. To be fair to the Marshall organization, her campaign appeared to be just like any other average Nevada down-ticket statewide campaign, it was nothing flashy. I didn’t witness that they wasted a ton of resources on frivolous items that so many down ticket campaigns sometimes do, and I was impressed with their ability to be at so many events. All in all, it was just another average campaign, I would have to go back and research more, but at the time of this post I am not sure if she did any TV in southern Nevada at all, and it should be noted that if I don’t recall if she did any no one else probably does either.
Down-ticket statewide campaigns in Nevada, just like many of the state I have had the pleasure of conducting campaigns in find themselves dependent on the “Top of the Ticket”, a few weeks of very strategic TV, and a good event coverage team.
I don’t think there would be an operative in Nevada that would say, that the Marshall Team did not benefit substantially from having Reid on the top of the ticket, I don’t know a campaign in this state that could not say thank you in some way to Harry Reid. That being noted, she will have to stand alone this time, so she is going to need some other aspects working for her, in the few times I had the opportunity to witness her campaign up close it appeared that she had developed a well oiled army of people willing to attend events. Speaking from a lot of experience in the area, volunteers who want to attend events, do not necessarily transition well to volunteers who want to conduct GOTV operations, which congressional campaigns desperately need. So, the question this summer will be for the Marshall Team is can they get this group of loyalist out of the county fairs and into the call centers and neighborhood walks?
There was a time I believed that grassroots could win an election, it was sometime around the same time I was a Field Director, having to persuade volunteers to make countless thousands of phone calls every week, with no end in sight. I quickly grew out of that phase of my political life; however I am still personally a strong advocate for a grassroots effort, and I firmly believe it can be the difference in a close election.
Kate Marshall to win must do more than have an amazing group of Volunteers. She is going to have to raise the money and fast, build an organization of trained professionals, and then trust them to develop then execute a nearly flawless campaign strategy. The DCCC, did not pick Kate Marshall at random, they must believe she has the ability, to stay out of the “weeds,” mobilize the people, raise the money, and trust the team.
The DCCC strategy is simple, keep the field clear for Marshall and let the Republicans sink themselves, while it looks as if there are at 2 other credible if not formidable Democrats poking their noses into the race, so we won’t know if the DCCC was successful in their piece of this puzzle until after filing at the end of the month. What we do know is that Marshal has brought in a fresh national campaign manager, a clear sign that the DCCC is engaged, and believes in her.
The DCCC must rely on this strategy, because unlike the 1st or 3rd congressional Districts in Nevada, the 2nd District doesn’t have the benefit of the pre-built “Reid Machine.” That is not to say that Conservatives should sit back, and get comfortable, this is still the state Harry Reid calls home. The “Reid Machine” is built for Clark and Washoe County, will it be in operation for this special election, you can count on it, will it be the same as it was in 2010 that remains to be seen. Because of all the unknowns surrounding how the how the “Reid Machine” will transfer in 2011, the decision made by Ross Miller became all the more important to the DCCC and Kate Marshall. The determination to have a “free for all” or #BallotRoyale special election, gives the Marshall the best shot at letting the political environment carry her though to victory, if she does not make mistakes.
The ball is in the DCCC court right now, if you were to ask me.
Key point, while the DCCC has Anointed Kate Marshall as their girl, she does not have an Organization that is pre-built and can just turn on. Lucky for them Reid does, but it just got off a big race, is it rested, is it ready, and in rural Nevada is it even there?
@KateMarshallNV It’s official! I’m in. #NVcd2
In what I hope is just a taste of what is a new communications process at the Nevada GOP they wasted little time with this little nugget:
“Kate Marshall is a reckless politician who brought the Treasurer’s office to an all time low when she blew $50 million in taxpayer money on a Wall Street gamble. Whether it’s making a sloppy investment, or foolishly depending on their advice, Marshall has a history of choosing big banks over the interest of Nevada taxpayers. Nevadans across the state are tightening their belts and fighting to keep their businesses open, we can’t afford to send an ambitious Marshall to Washington while we’re still paying for her past mistakes.” — Mari Nakashima, Communications Director for the Nevada Republican Party
DCCC appeared to not like the implication that they were involved and that Kate Marshall is their Anointed candidate:
@RalstonFlash: I hear Marshall will do release later today. She is DCCC choice. Can Ds keep others out?
@RalstonFlash: DCCC spox wants me to know, re: #nvcd2: “The DCCC has spoken to a number of potential candidates in NV-02, but hasn’t endorsed anyone.”
@RalstonFlash: DCCC doesn’t like that I say it embraces Marshall in #ballotroyale. Of course not official, but it wants her, as does NV D Establishment.
News Stories Covering Marshall’s Announcement:
Democrats’ Marshall Plan In Nevada
Hotline OnCall | By: Jessica Taylor
Republicans will likely have a more crowded field - and their candidate list could cause a chasm between the GOP establishment and the Tea Party. Sharron Angle was the party’s unsuccessful nominee for Senate last year, but Republicans believe she fumbled away an easy chance to defeat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.)
Nevada Dem enters special-election race and others may follow
The Hill’s Campaign Blog “Ballot Box” | By: Sean J. Miller
Republicans are expected to file a legal challenge to Miller’s decision to make the vote a free-for-all. GOP operatives believe that without a primary, multiple candidates on the right will split the vote and give Democrats an advantage in a district they haven’t held since its creation in 1982.
Nevada treasurer Marshall announces run for Heller’s seatLas Vegas Review Journal | By: Laura Myers
“I know the party wants to get behind Kate,” said Price, who ran for Congress a decade ago as a Republican in Southern Nevada before switching parties, partly to protest the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. “But I was elected last year as the Democratic nominee and I’m still running. And so the Democrats ought to get behind me instead of anointing someone.”
State Treasurer Kate Marshall jumps into U.S. House race
Las Vegas Sun | By Cy Ryan
Others who have announced for the seat are Democrats Jill Derby and Nancy Price. Republicans intending to run include Sharron Angle, state Sen. Greg Brower and Retired Navy Commander Kirk Lippold. Mentioned as possible candidates are Republicans Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki and GOP Chairman Mark Amodei.
Nevada state treasurer enters crowded US House special election race to replace Dean HellerAssociated Press | By: Cristina Silva
Marshall is the third Democrat to join the still-forming field of hopefuls in an open contest expected to yield an unusually long ballot. There will be no primary before the September general election, and major party candidates simply have to submit a completed form by May 25 to run.
In other news, apparently Ross Miller’s office got tired of fielding phone calls, and put out an FAQ on the Special Election, I have linked to that document by Clicking Here.
